Fri, Jan 10, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 29 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 231 |
| DET | 16 | 18 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:55DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Filip Hronek, Robby Fabbri · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:32DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 5:54OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Colin White · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:42OTTColin WhitePPAssists: Mike Reilly, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Tyler Bertuzzi stopped
- 2. OTT Tyler Ennis stopped
- 3. DET Dylan Larkin scored
- 4. OTT Anthony Duclair stopped
- 5. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 6. OTT Artem Anisimov stopped
Penalties (9)
- P2 3:07OTTRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:43OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:22DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:14OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:55DETBrian Lashoff: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:35OTTConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:48DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tkachuk won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Namestnikov – Balcers2:24
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Chlapik4:46
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- White – Batherson – Tkachuk6:51
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Ennis – White – Chlapik5:59
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Reilly16:30
xG 1.13–0.17 (87%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot2:04
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Englund6:16
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri15:47
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Filppula – Erne – Zadina9:17
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening9:53
xG 0.19–0.40 (33%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith6:04
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Hronek15:56
xG 1.01–0.81 (55%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Green – Nemeth17:54
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Biega – Lashoff12:13
xG 0.05–0.45 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).