Sun, Jan 12, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 312 | 03 | 212 | 527 |
| DET | 06 | 111 | 05 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Curtis Lazar, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 5:00BUFEvan RodriguesPPGWGAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P1 12:43BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–0
- P2 11:56DETMadison BoweyAssists: Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 2:35BUFZach BogosianAssists: Curtis Lazar, Michael Frolik · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 3:40BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:25DETMike Green: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:08BUFZach Bogosian: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:56DETMadison Bowey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:54DETValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:35BUFBrandon Montour: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:05BUFZach Bogosian: Delaying game2 min
- P3 3:16DETMike Green: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Wilson8:48
xG 0.37–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Eichel – Rodrigues2:47
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Johansson – Sheary7:31
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Reinhart – Eichel10:00
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen4:57
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Pilut6:12
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin5:15
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Erne – Zadina5:29
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith7:39
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri10:37
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening9:27
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Lashoff13:53
xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Bowey – Hronek13:02
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 1–2
- Green – Nemeth14:21
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).