Tue, Jan 14, 2020·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Detroit Red Wings 2, New York Islanders 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 09 | 115 | 236 |
| NYI | 414 | 28 | 24 | 826 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 3:59NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Michael Dal Colle · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 7:56NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.35 xG0–3
- P1 11:45DETFilip HronekAssists: Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P1 18:30NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 1:59NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–5
- P2 2:40NYINoah DobsonAssists: Ryan Pulock, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 5:12NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Ryan Pulock, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–7
- P3 9:07NYILeo KomarovAssists: Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–8
- P3 14:00DETGivani SmithAssists: Christoffer Ehn, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–8
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:30DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:30NYIMichael Dal Colle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:52NYIBrock Nelson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:30DETLuke Glendening: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:28NYIRyan Pulock: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Glendening – Zadina3:59
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith8:24
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Erne6:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening4:36
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Hronek11:49
xG 0.72–0.43 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 1–3
- Biega – Lashoff14:05
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Green – Lashoff2:24
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal11:47
xG 1.00–0.31 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier10:44
xG 0.67–0.34 (67%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
- Komarov – Martin – Koivula10:35
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Bailey – Kuhnhackl – Dal Colle11:39
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 2–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock11:53
xG 1.05–0.61 (63%)attempts 7–13goals 3–0
- Mayfield – Toews12:39
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Dobson13:04
xG 0.43–0.65 (40%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).