Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 216 | 010 | 212 | 438 |
| DET | 07 | 116 | 05 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:15FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Joshua Brown · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 18:40FLAMark PysykGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Frank Vatrano · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 5:15DETDylan LarkinAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 13:05FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 18:12FLADenis MalginENAssists: Frank Vatrano, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:43FLABrett Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:07FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:36DETPatrik Nemeth: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:47FLAVincent Trocheck: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:47DETFilip Hronek: Instigator2 min
- P1 13:47DETFilip Hronek: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:47DETFilip Hronek: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 3:06DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:50FLADenis Malgin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:08FLABrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:35FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P3 6:29FLADenis Malgin: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:50DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:50DETAlex Biega: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:45FLAColton Sceviour: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Vatrano – Malgin4:53
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari7:58
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov7:20
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Brown7:12
xG 0.80–0.55 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Stralman – Stillman8:31
xG 0.30–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad7:45
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Zadina4:19
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith4:55
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Larkin2:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne2:49
xG 0.04–0.24 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Hronek7:06
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Bowey3:37
xG 0.05–0.23 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Green – Nemeth10:53
xG 0.16–0.52 (23%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).