Tue, Feb 4, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 6, Buffalo Sabres 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 28 | 410 | 09 | 627 |
| BUF | 18 | 08 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:12COLSamuel GirardAssists: Ryan Graves, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:57COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 19:59BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jake McCabe, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 1:00COLNazem KadriAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 4:23COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 10:58COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P2 12:59COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.06 xG6–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:09COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:04COLRyan Graves: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin11:21
xG 1.03–0.29 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 4–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:57
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Calvert – Compher – Bellemare8:15
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Nieto – Jost9:40
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov14:40
xG 0.97–0.40 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard16:13
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Graves – Makar16:08
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 17–17goals 3–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Reinhart – Eichel15:51
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Frolik – Johansson – Sheary13:33
xG 0.57–0.56 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- Skinner – Girgensons – Rodrigues10:03
xG 0.23–0.61 (27%)attempts 4–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Jokiharju7:37
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Montour – Pilut6:03
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Jokiharju6:24
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).