Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 315 | 28 | 531 |
| ARI | 110 | 112 | 111 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Derek Stepan, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:06ARIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 5:06CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Haydn Fleury, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 9:00CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 11:01CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 1:03CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 3:27ARIConor GarlandAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:26CARSebastian AhoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:50ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:09CARJoel Edmundson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:19CARJustin Williams: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:46CARJoel Edmundson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:59ARIBrad Richardson: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:03CARJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:15CARLucas Wallmark: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov7:29
xG 1.03–0.25 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Foegele6:23
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas9:55
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Teravainen3:41
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce13:07
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk15:03
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Fleury12:47
xG 0.73–0.68 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Soderberg – Fischer9:14
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Schmaltz – Keller6:47
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland10:40
xG 0.60–0.79 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 1–3
- Kessel – Stepan – Crouse7:46
xG 0.10–0.81 (11%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNess – Lyubushkin9:29
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Lyubushkin5:00
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Ness2:47
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).