Mon, Feb 10, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 117 | 16 | 334 |
| MTL | 210 | 03 | 015 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51MTLJake EvansAssists: Nick Cousins, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 1:52MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 5:08ARIDerek StepanAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 16:36ARITaylor HallAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 19:00ARIJakob ChychrunPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:33MTLBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:26MTLNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:56ARIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P1 18:08ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:29ARIDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:41ARIClayton Keller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:34MTLJonathan Drouin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:36MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:08ARICarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:19MTLBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:37MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stepan – Crouse4:14
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Schmaltz – Keller7:54
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kessel – Stepan2:04
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland9:34
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin10:31
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson13:30
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun13:14
xG 0.44–0.89 (33%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Cousins – Evans3:55
xG 0.40–0.04 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault3:28
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Domi3:45
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Armia – Domi2:10
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ouellet8:34
xG 0.64–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Petry – Kulak14:05
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Mete9:57
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).