Tue, Feb 11, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 17 | 010 | 229 |
| BUF | 110 | 110 | 15 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27DETDarren HelmAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 1:03BUFConor ShearyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Curtis Lazar · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 7:02DETDarren HelmAssists: Anthony Mantha, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 14:59BUFMarcus JohanssonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 0:57BUFSam ReinhartGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:21DETAdam Erne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:19BUFCarter Hutton: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 1:32DETFilip Hronek: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:32DETAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:36BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:24BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:05DETFilip Hronek: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Mantha – Larkin10:31
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin2:35
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Erne – Ehn4:08
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi2:15
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Nemeth11:59
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Lindstrom4:32
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Lindstrom7:42
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Lazar – Sheary10:28
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Larsson – Wilson – Girgensons7:12
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Skinner – Rodrigues7:39
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel13:40
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jokiharju17:24
xG 1.11–0.34 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Dahlin12:31
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Montour14:28
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).