Tue, Feb 11, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 017 | 110 | 09 | 12 | 238 |
| PIT | 18 | 011 | 016 | 01 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 3:59TBLMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 2:45TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:49PITJared McCann: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:51TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:45TBLBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P2 2:19PITZachary Aston-Reese: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:48TBLLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:41PITBrandon Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 17:00PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:44TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P3 15:23TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Cirelli4:20
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point6:25
xG 0.92–0.79 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens6:19
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paquette – Joseph6:47
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak11:40
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev2:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev10:31
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – McCann12:33
xG 1.22–0.54 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Zucker – Simon4:37
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Zucker6:18
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:37
xG 0.16–0.90 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Riikola2:40
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Letang13:05
xG 1.12–1.17 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola6:05
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).