Thu, Feb 13, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Dallas Stars 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 110 | 13 | 319 |
| TOR | 03 | 114 | 114 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20DALDenis GurianovAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 0:24DALRadek FaksaAssists: Blake Comeau, Andrew Cogliano · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 11:21TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 1:21DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 18:41TORZach HymanAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:58TORJustin Holl: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:18TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:55DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:55TORKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:14DALCorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:07TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:27DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 1:11TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:26
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov6:26
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Janmark – Robertson – Kiviranta3:50
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Seguin – Hintz7:32
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell13:47
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Polak – Heiskanen4:04
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Johns – Lindell2:40
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews9:51
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Clifford – Aberg – Engvall3:54
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews7:19
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Spezza – Clifford – Kapanen2:25
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Barrie3:13
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Dermott11:30
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Barrie – Sandin5:57
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).