Thu, Feb 13, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Arizona Coyotes 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 113 | 112 | 234 |
| OTT | 210 | 08 | 113 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50OTTVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Drake Batherson, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 6:41OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown · Deflected, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 16:40ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 6:50OTTNick PaulGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 9:01ARIJordan OesterleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:51ARITaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:55ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:31OTTNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:07ARINick Schmaltz: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Dvorak – Garland5:31
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Hinostroza – Dvorak9:02
xG 0.40–0.18 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Crouse – Garland5:53
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Crouse4:41
xG 0.06–0.12 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin13:35
xG 0.90–0.67 (57%)attempts 23–15goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson14:30
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:34
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – White – Chlapik4:54
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Batherson11:11
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk14:00
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Duclair – Paul8:01
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Chabot16:02
xG 1.20–0.90 (57%)attempts 24–17goals 1–0
- Hainsey – DeMelo2:07
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zaitsev15:03
xG 0.51–0.80 (39%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).