Mon, Feb 17, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 06 | 29 | 227 |
| VGK | 215 | 18 | 06 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43VGKNick HoldenAssists: William Carrier, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:17VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 14:06VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 8:47WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 10:40WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Jakub Vrana, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:59VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:34WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:16VGKCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:31VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson12:07
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana10:24
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Hagelin – Panik – Boyd9:51
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:43
xG 0.46–0.65 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Gudas6:08
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny10:14
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Siegenthaler2:02
xG 0.02–0.01 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Karlsson10:57
xG 0.81–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Eakin – Stephenson – Glass8:40
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault11:47
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek9:41
xG 0.44–0.86 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Theodore15:58
xG 1.12–0.75 (60%)attempts 18–14goals 3–0
- Merrill – Whitecloud11:17
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt15:02
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).