Tue, Feb 18, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 013 | 214 | 09 | 236 |
| PIT | 212 | 34 | 08 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:03PITAnthony AngelloAssists: Sam Lafferty, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 2:52PITJason ZuckerPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 7:11PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Jared McCann · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 12:35PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–5
- P2 16:35TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P2 18:01TORKyle CliffordAssists: Jason Spezza, Martin Marincin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:19PITSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:27TORDmytro Timashov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:18TORAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:26TORJason Spezza: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43PITAnthony Angello: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:24PITBryan Rust: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:05PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Clifford – Timashov9:22
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Kapanen – Engvall8:11
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews14:39
xG 0.74–0.97 (43%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:45
xG 0.04–0.30 (11%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl17:26
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Barrie – Dermott2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Barrie – Sandin15:15
xG 0.27–0.53 (33%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Zucker – Simon13:01
xG 0.90–0.66 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Agozzino – Lafferty – Angello4:07
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Zucker2:08
xG 0.03–0.00 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Blueger – Simon – Tanev2:15
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson15:45
xG 1.00–0.41 (71%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Ruhwedel – Riikola10:51
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Letang18:24
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).