Wed, Feb 19, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 07 | 110 | 128 |
| COL | 117 | 19 | 13 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 0:45COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 7:43COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan Graves · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 17:46NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:10NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:22COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:39NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:45NYITom Kuhnhackl: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:29NYIKieffer Bellows: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:42COLAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:19COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson2:10
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Komarov – Martin – Kuhnhackl2:26
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Nelson – Dal Colle – Beauvillier7:04
xG 0.04–0.29 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal10:32
xG 0.36–0.82 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Toews2:08
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews11:57
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Pulock – Toews2:16
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Compher – Nichushkin9:54
xG 0.91–0.31 (74%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – MacKinnon11:50
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Nieto – Bellemare – Kaut6:32
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Kamenev – Jost2:25
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar11:21
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Cole12:26
xG 0.85–0.53 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Girard12:17
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).