Sat, Feb 22, 2020·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Arizona Coyotes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 211 | 09 | 330 |
| ARI | 211 | 218 | 312 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Alex Killorn, Cameron Gaunce · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 17:36ARIConor GarlandAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 18:46ARIClayton KellerAssists: Alex Goligoski, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:51ARICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Conor Garland, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 8:45TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Cameron Gaunce, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 10:11TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 11:04ARIBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 11:51ARIClayton KellerAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–5
- P3 14:28ARIConor GarlandPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–6
- P3 18:46ARIDerek StepanAssists: Conor Garland, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.14 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:59TBLMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:54TBLCameron Gaunce: Holding2 min
- P3 7:17TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:51ARIJordan Oesterle: Interference2 min
- P3 14:09TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:28TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point15:05
xG 1.29–0.55 (70%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Killorn – Coleman – Cirelli10:34
xG 0.65–0.34 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Gourde9:43
xG 0.68–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 1–2
- Maroon – Gourde – Verhaeghe2:11
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak8:00
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev9:59
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Gaunce – Sergachev7:46
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Garland – Hayton10:24
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Richardson – Soderberg – Hinostroza9:54
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Crouse – Keller8:18
xG 0.41–0.71 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 2–2
- Hall – Schmaltz – Dvorak12:51
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Lyubushkin17:11
xG 0.97–0.70 (58%)attempts 19–12goals 3–0
- Goligoski – Ness13:20
xG 0.88–0.81 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle17:14
xG 0.38–1.19 (24%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).