Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 29 | 03 | 423 |
| TBL | 18 | 17 | 114 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:46TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:48TORJake MuzzinAssists: Jason Spezza, Frederik Gauthier · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 16:42TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:54TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Cedric Paquette, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 12:25TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 14:21TORWilliam NylanderPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 7:27TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Barclay Goodrow · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:25TBLBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:04TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:29TORAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min
- P2 5:07TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:31TBLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:46TORRasmus Sandin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Nylander4:19
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Marner – Matthews2:33
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Clifford – Gauthier3:25
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews7:02
xG 0.06–0.16 (27%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl11:53
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Barrie – Dermott10:53
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Holl – Dermott4:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point7:23
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette3:13
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Palat – Kucherov – Point5:06
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Goodrow5:20
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev9:28
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Hedman – Cernak13:58
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Sergachev4:03
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).