Wed, Feb 26, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 19 | 013 | 233 |
| COL | 19 | 111 | 114 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 16:21BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Johan Larsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:15COLMartin KautPPAssists: Vladislav Kamenev, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 14:56BUFCurtis LazarAssists: Jake McCabe, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 11:54COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:21COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:30BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:38BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:47COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Holding2 min
- P3 16:13BUFBrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons11:07
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel11:41
xG 0.46–0.44 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Frolik – Vesey – Lazar6:36
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Johansson – Skinner8:43
xG 0.13–0.42 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jokiharju12:38
xG 0.87–0.63 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Miller – Dahlin17:36
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Montour16:39
xG 0.05–0.69 (7%)attempts 8–28goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Nichushkin13:54
xG 0.78–0.04 (95%)attempts 22–5goals 0–0
- Nieto – Bellemare – Kaut2:23
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Jost10:29
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Nieto – Kamenev – O'Connor3:44
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar13:53
xG 0.75–0.19 (79%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov14:12
xG 0.89–0.52 (63%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Girard12:08
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).