Thu, Feb 27, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 06 | 510 | 527 |
| TBL | 010 | 117 | 111 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:31TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 0:17TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brayden Point · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 4:36CHIBrandon SaadSHAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 5:02CHIDominik KubalikSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 9:56CHISlater KoekkoekSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 11:43CHIDominik KubalikSHAssists: Duncan Keith, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 17:29CHIDominik KubalikENAssists: Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:25CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:54TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:20CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:15TBLBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min
- P1 15:27CHIBrandon Saad: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:24TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:20TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:38CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:28TBLLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 5:57CHISlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P3 10:35TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:28CHIDrake Caggiula: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:28TBLBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:28TBLCedric Paquette: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:28TBLZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kane – Strome – Nylander8:07
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- DeBrincat – Caggiula – Dach6:18
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Highmore – Kampf6:27
xG 0.01–0.07 (9%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Kubalik7:18
xG 0.10–0.60 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy5:21
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Keith – Boqvist7:00
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Murphy – Carlsson7:32
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Cirelli8:55
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point8:41
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Gourde – Paquette7:24
xG 0.06–0.26 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev9:35
xG 0.48–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Coburn – Bogosian8:53
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Schenn – Hedman4:18
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).