Fri, Feb 28, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 06 | 119 | 234 |
| VGK | 111 | 06 | 311 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16BUFDominik KahunAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jimmy Vesey · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 11:12VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Nick Cousins, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 3:06VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Max Pacioretty, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 5:25VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Zach Whitecloud · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:11VGKReilly SmithENAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–4
- P3 19:48BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Brandon Montour, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (1)
- P2 14:18VGKJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cousins won the faceoff against Reinhart
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Skinner – Lazar10:02
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel2:41
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Kahun9:08
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons11:37
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jokiharju14:19
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Dahlin12:20
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:18
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Karlsson – Stephenson13:56
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault10:34
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Smith – Quinney3:09
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Nosek – Quinney4:10
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt17:24
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
- Holden – Whitecloud15:19
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Martinez – Theodore18:50
xG 0.81–1.11 (42%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).