Tue, Mar 3, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 010 | 28 | 326 |
| PIT | 310 | 19 | 316 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48PITJohn MarinoAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 1:39PITConor ShearyAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 16:24OTTJayce HawrylukAssists: Mike Reilly, Colin White · Snap, 0.46 xG1–2
- P1 19:15PITBryan RustPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 17:21PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 0:36PITJason ZuckerAssists: Conor Sheary, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 1:09OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Colin White · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 11:27OTTConnor BrownAssists: Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 13:29PITBryan RustAssists: Patrick Marleau, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–6
- P3 17:10PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.09 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:25PITJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 13:18OTTBobby Ryan: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:10OTTNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:56OTTChris Tierney: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:16PITSam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:50PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:32OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:23PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ryan – Peca – Tkachuk2:36
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boedker – Peca – Sabourin3:22
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Peca – Paul – Hawryluk4:07
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – White – Tkachuk7:09
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Chabot13:13
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev3:13
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zaitsev12:23
xG 0.79–0.89 (47%)attempts 11–15goals 2–4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Zucker – Sheary12:37
xG 0.99–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- Lafferty – Angello – Rodrigues5:26
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Malkin – Rust8:31
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 3–1
- Hornqvist – Blueger – McCann10:01
xG 0.33–0.32 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin10:37
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:39
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Schultz7:09
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).