Tue, Mar 3, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 18 | 07 | 126 |
| WPG | 213 | 114 | 08 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:59WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:05WPGTucker PoolmanSHGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 3:41WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
- P2 10:34BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Kyle Okposo, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:49WPGJack Roslovic: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46WPGNicholas Shore: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:12BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:39BUFJimmy Vesey: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:29BUFWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons8:58
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Olofsson – Eichel7:49
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Lazar – Reinhart5:07
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Kahun8:50
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jokiharju10:08
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Montour – Jokiharju2:04
xG 0.01–0.01 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Pilut13:14
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Ehlers – Laine10:54
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Copp – Harkins – Roslovic10:17
xG 0.50–0.42 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor15:47
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Bourque – Shore – Appleton4:58
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Pionk15:27
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Poolman12:15
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:18
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).