Fri, Mar 6, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 121 | 05 | 234 |
| CGY | 215 | 112 | 07 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11ARITaylor HallAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 5:54CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 6:35CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 4:17CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 10:57ARICarl SoderbergAssists: Taylor Hall, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:29ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:23CGYErik Gustafsson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:18ARIAlex Goligoski: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 18:36CGYNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P2 18:40ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:40CGYMark Jankowski: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:23ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Ryan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Dvorak – Keller12:24
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Crouse5:25
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Crouse – Garland2:54
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – Garland – Hayton2:25
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Lyubushkin13:52
xG 0.97–0.56 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson15:51
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson2:08
xG 0.05–0.11 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:15
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Bennett8:45
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube7:35
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk11:57
xG 0.51–1.42 (26%)attempts 14–18goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:07
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Andersson16:42
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Forbort – Gustafsson12:53
xG 0.45–0.79 (36%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).