Sat, Mar 7, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 312 | 07 | 29 | 528 |
| PIT | 06 | 07 | 215 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52WSHNic DowdAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Richard Panik · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 16:15WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Jakub Vrana, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 18:38WSHRichard PanikGWGAssists: Nick Jensen, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 0:34WSHNic DowdSHAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 5:09PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 12:16PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 13:12WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:03PITSam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:03WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:37WSHBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P1 7:12WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:07WSHCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P2 16:02WSHTom Wilson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:02PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:48WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:35WSHBrenden Dillon: Delaying game2 min
- P3 10:34WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Dowd – Hathaway7:09
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Eller9:02
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana9:50
xG 0.49–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:11
xG 0.07–0.49 (13%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen14:02
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Siegenthaler – Kempny6:40
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Orlov – Kempny2:00
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Zucker – Sheary10:16
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – McCann8:16
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Malkin – Rust9:57
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Blueger – Lafferty – Tanev10:20
xG 0.04–0.61 (6%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino11:43
xG 0.69–0.49 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Schultz11:26
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin15:12
xG 0.54–1.04 (34%)attempts 11–16goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).