Fri, May 7, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 310 | 110 | 531 |
| TBL | 06 | 114 | 17 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50DALJamie OleksiakAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Tanner Kero · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 5:17DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 11:11TBLBlake ColemanAssists: Victor Hedman, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 13:05DALJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 19:45DALRoope HintzAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 3:49DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
- P3 8:29TBLAlex Barré-BouletPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.23 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:36TBLBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:49DALJason Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:08DALJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:52DALEsa Lindell: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:58DALJoel Hanley: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Kiviranta9:49
xG 0.53–0.27 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson8:45
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Robertson9:37
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Faksa – Gurianov – Kero5:18
xG 0.03–0.26 (12%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen20:25
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Sekera – Lindell11:01
xG 0.62–0.17 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 4–0
- Klingberg – Lindell7:51
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Joseph – Colton3:04
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde15:09
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli2:29
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Colton – Barré-Boulet4:47
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta3:54
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Rutta10:17
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Hedman – Savard2:26
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).