Fri, Jan 22, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 19 | 111 | 231 |
| ARI | 110 | 211 | 25 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22ARIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Conor Garland · Snap, 0.37 xG0–1
- P2 1:19VGKShea TheodoreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:55ARIDerick BrassardAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:00ARINick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Drake Caggiula · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 1:25ARIConor GarlandAssists: Drake Caggiula, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 11:04VGKCody GlassPPAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.37 xG2–4
- P3 19:01ARIJordan OesterleENAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:52VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:37ARIJason Demers: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:38VGKShea Theodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:17VGKAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:15ARIJason Demers: Interference2 min
- P3 5:33VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min
- P3 7:52ARIJason Demers: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 17:02VGKAlec Martinez: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:01VGKMark Stone: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault5:55
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson8:33
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek9:24
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Tuch – Roy – Glass7:23
xG 0.01–0.36 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore6:23
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Martinez – Whitecloud9:38
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – McNabb7:03
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Caggiula7:57
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Larsson – Fischer – Crouse10:54
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Brassard – Pitlick – Dvorak8:48
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Kessel – Keller – Hayton9:52
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Soderstrom11:06
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Demers2:11
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Demers11:21
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).