Sun, Jan 24, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 114 | 18 | 332 |
| CGY | 09 | 111 | 113 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46TORJake MuzzinAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 12:53CGYSean MonahanAssists: Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 19:28TORWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 2:42TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Morgan Rielly · Deflected, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 6:33CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:40TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:23CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P2 9:03TORWayne Simmonds: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:23CGYMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P2 19:20CGYNikita Nesterov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:24TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:12CGYSean Monahan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Nylander6:56
xG 0.47–0.06 (88%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews3:09
xG 0.35–0.04 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Mikheyev6:29
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Engvall – Barabanov3:51
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl16:09
xG 1.23–0.50 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dermott9:40
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:31
xG 0.18–1.01 (15%)attempts 4–21goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk9:56
xG 0.86–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk3:12
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Simon7:13
xG 0.73–0.70 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Backlund – Leivo – Bennett11:28
xG 0.25–0.70 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:39
xG 1.63–0.39 (81%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Nesterov – Välimäki14:05
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Giordano – Andersson13:14
xG 0.40–1.12 (26%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).