Thu, Jan 28, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 211 | 04 | 212 | 427 |
| EDM | 011 | 18 | 210 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:29TORJason SpezzaAssists: Travis Boyd · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:22TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 18:11EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 7:00EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 7:56TORWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 11:12EDMZack KassianAssists: Kyle Turris, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–3
- P3 13:37TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:56TORAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:22EDMKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P2 5:27TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P2 13:45TORJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:01TORAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:31TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:41EDMAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:08TORAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:42EDMJosh Archibald: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:12EDMEthan Bear: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:08TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews11:03
xG 1.06–0.60 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Barabanov4:27
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Vesey – Kerfoot8:10
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev7:46
xG 0.29–0.86 (25%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dermott7:41
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly11:48
xG 0.73–0.96 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:57
xG 0.42–1.31 (25%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Turris – Kassian7:18
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi8:39
xG 0.60–0.41 (60%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun10:00
xG 0.69–0.51 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones11:03
xG 1.04–0.45 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bear13:59
xG 1.05–0.61 (63%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Koekkoek11:02
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).