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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.

EDM winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:30Shot by Bogosian, saved by Koskinen
  3. P1 2:50Shot by Rielly, saved by Koskinen
  4. P1 3:14Shot by Kassian, saved by Andersen
  5. P1 5:04Shot by Jones, saved by Andersen
  6. P1 5:29Shot by Bear, saved by Andersen
  7. P1 5:33Shot by Nurse, saved by Andersen
  8. P1 6:18Shot by Neal, saved by Andersen
  9. P1 7:20Shot by Holl, saved by Koskinen
  10. P1 7:51Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Andersen
  11. P1 9:29Goal by Spezza (Boyd)+18 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Barrie, Archibald, Koekkoek, McDavid, Nygard · TOR Spezza, Bogosian, Boyd, Dermott, Barabanov

  12. P1 9:45Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Koskinen
  13. P1 10:19Shot by Neal, saved by Andersen
  14. P1 10:22Shot by Neal, saved by Andersen
  15. P1 10:36Shot by Neal, saved by Andersen
  16. P1 10:53Shot by Kassian, saved by Andersen
  17. P1 11:52Shot by Kahun, saved by Andersen
  18. P1 12:56Kerfoot: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid · TOR Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Vesey, Kerfoot

  19. P1 14:16Shot by Bogosian, saved by Koskinen5v4
  20. P1 14:43Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Koskinen5v4
  21. P1 16:22Turris: Holding (2 min)5v6

    On ice: EDM Turris, Archibald, Larsson, Bear, Nygard · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Kerfoot, Nylander, Dermott, Matthews

  22. P1 17:06Shot by Rielly, saved by Koskinen4v5
  23. P1 17:59Shot by Nylander, saved by Koskinen4v5
  24. P1 18:22Goal by Nylander (Tavares, Spezza)+15 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Koekkoek, Draisaitl · TOR Muzzin, Brodie, Tavares, Hyman, Nylander

  25. P1 19:37Shot by Matthews, saved by Koskinen
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 3:31Shot by Nurse, saved by Andersen
  29. P2 5:27Holl: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Barrie, Koekkoek, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, Kahun · TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Mikheyev

  30. P2 6:29Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Andersen5v4
  31. P2 10:24Shot by Yamamoto, saved by Andersen
  32. P2 10:36Shot by Neal, saved by Andersen
  33. P2 10:43Shot by Koekkoek, saved by Andersen
  34. P2 11:59Shot by Tavares, saved by Koskinen
  35. P2 12:19Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Koskinen
  36. P2 13:37Shot by Hyman, saved by Koskinen
  37. P2 13:45Spezza: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Archibald, Larsson, Shore, Jones, Nygard · TOR Spezza, Brodie, Boyd, Rielly, Barabanov

  38. P2 14:24Shot by Neal, saved by Andersen5v4
  39. P2 16:03Shot by Spezza, saved by Koskinen
  40. P2 17:01Kerfoot: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Turris, Kassian, Larsson, Jones, Nygard · TOR Simmonds, Brodie, Vesey, Kerfoot, Dermott

  41. P2 17:31Hyman: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: EDM Barrie, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Puljujarvi · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, Marner

  42. P2 18:11Goal by Draisaitl (McDavid, Nurse)5v3+16 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yamamoto · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Marner

  43. P2 19:52Shot by Kassian, saved by Andersen
  44. P2 0:00Period end
  45. P3 0:00Period start
  46. P3 1:41Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Larsson, Draisaitl, Jones, Yamamoto, Kahun · TOR Bogosian, Hyman, Kerfoot, Dermott, Marner

  47. P3 2:04Shot by Nylander, saved by Koskinen4v5
  48. P3 2:05Shot by Archibald, saved by Andersen4v5
  49. P3 2:43Shot by Nylander, saved by Koskinen4v5
  50. P3 3:13Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Koskinen4v5
  51. P3 4:41Shot by Spezza, saved by Koskinen
  52. P3 6:08Kerfoot: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Barrie, Nugent-Hopkins, Koekkoek, McDavid, Puljujarvi · TOR Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Vesey, Kerfoot

  53. P3 7:00Goal by Draisaitl (McDavid, Barrie)5v4+32 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Barrie, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Yamamoto · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, Marner

  54. P3 7:42Archibald: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Archibald, Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Shore, Jones · TOR Bogosian, Tavares, Nylander, Dermott, Matthews

  55. P3 7:56Goal by Simmonds (Marner, Rielly)4v5+33 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Turris, Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Bear · TOR Simmonds, Rielly, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews

  56. P3 10:20Shot by Matthews, saved by Koskinen
  57. P3 10:58Shot by Larsson, saved by Andersen
  58. P3 11:10Shot by Turris, saved by Andersen
  59. P3 11:12Goal by Kassian (Turris, Larsson)+36 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Turris, Kassian, Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Jones · TOR Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Vesey, Kerfoot

  60. P3 11:45Shot by Puljujarvi, saved by Andersen
  61. P3 12:02Shot by Marner, saved by Koskinen
  62. P3 12:12Bear: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, McDavid, Bear, Puljujarvi · TOR Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, Matthews

  63. P3 12:20Shot by Spezza, saved by Koskinen4v5
  64. P3 12:26Shot by Nylander, saved by Koskinen4v5
  65. P3 13:37Goal by Matthews (Brodie, Kerfoot)4v5+36 pts WP

    On ice: EDM Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Jones, Yamamoto · TOR Simmonds, Brodie, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews

  66. P3 15:36Shot by Matthews, saved by Koskinen
  67. P3 16:06Shot by Kahun, saved by Andersen
  68. P3 16:25Shot by Marner, saved by Koskinen
  69. P3 17:08Nylander: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: EDM Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bear, Puljujarvi · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Mikheyev

  70. P3 18:42Shot by Barrie, saved by Andersen6v4
  71. P3 19:00Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Andersen6v4
  72. P3 19:43Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Andersen6v5
  73. P3 0:00Final
  74. P3 0:00Period end6v5