Sat, Jan 30, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 210 | 09 | 01 | 329 |
| EDM | 213 | 111 | 06 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:28EDMDominik KahunAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:46TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 19:46EDMJosh ArchibaldAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 6:13EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 8:08TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 9:16TORZach HymanPPAssists: John Tavares, Mikko Lehtonen · Snap, 0.30 xG3–3
- OT 0:42EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:38TORMikko Lehtonen: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 5:51TORWilliam Nylander: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06TORMikko Lehtonen: Holding2 min
- P3 7:43EDMKailer Yamamoto: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews17:00
xG 0.74–0.62 (55%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Vesey – Kerfoot9:29
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Matthews2:05
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Engvall – Barabanov6:16
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Bogosian3:13
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:34
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly17:41
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Puljujarvi12:46
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Ennis – Archibald – Shore5:43
xG 0.50–0.02 (97%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Kahun18:41
xG 0.66–0.62 (51%)attempts 23–17goals 1–0
- Neal – Turris – Kassian7:21
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones14:20
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Barrie – Koekkoek11:11
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Barrie – Nurse7:34
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).