Tue, Feb 2, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 19 | 08 | 128 |
| COL | 112 | 111 | 08 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:45COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:09COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 13:05MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Zach Parise, Gerry Mayhew · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:44COLSheldon Dries: Interference2 min
- P1 8:33MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:13MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P2 2:49COLLogan O'Connor: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:38COLJ.T. Compher: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:38MINKyle Rau: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:38COLJ.T. Compher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:20MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRask – Kaprizov – Mayhew11:16
xG 0.44–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hartman – Greenway – Eriksson Ek11:55
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rau – Sturm2:09
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Johnson7:23
xG 0.06–0.70 (8%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon10:22
xG 0.73–0.68 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Cole – Soucy3:19
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Soucy2:12
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Nichushkin – Jost6:38
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Compher – Rantanen9:39
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dries – Sherwood – O'Connor4:50
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky7:53
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Timmins8:10
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Graves – Makar3:37
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Girard – MacDonald4:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).