Thu, Feb 4, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 215 | 110 | 15 | 430 |
| STL | 09 | 016 | 318 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32ARITyler PitlickAssists: Drake Caggiula, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:48ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Conor Garland, Jordan Oesterle · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 5:18ARIConor GarlandAssists: Jason Demers, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P3 16:45STLMike HoffmanAssists: Torey Krug, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 17:46ARIChristian DvorakENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
- P3 18:49STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jaden Schwartz, David Perron · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:35STLMike HoffmanAssists: David Perron, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:42STLVince Dunn: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:39ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:32STLJaden Schwartz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:40ARIJakob Chychrun: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:47ARIDrake Caggiula: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22ARIAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Keller8:09
xG 1.08–0.25 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Caggiula8:14
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Hayton6:05
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Caggiula2:36
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Lyubushkin12:52
xG 0.66–0.25 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Demers – Oesterle13:25
xG 0.82–0.62 (57%)attempts 11–19goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson13:34
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sanford6:53
xG 0.69–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Hoffman – O'Reilly4:35
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Clifford – Sundqvist – Barbashev3:34
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Blais – Thomas4:36
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Mikkola6:42
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Faulk – Dunn5:43
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Krug – Parayko4:00
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).