Fri, Feb 5, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 012 | 04 | 128 |
| TBL | 114 | 19 | 19 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Filip Zadina, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:56TBLPatrick MaroonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 17:29TBLBarclay GoodrowGWGAssists: Jan Rutta, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:32TBLBarclay GoodrowENAssists: Blake Coleman, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:50DETPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P1 6:29TBLMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:57TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:28DETGivani Smith: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:28DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Gagner – Namestnikov9:17
xG 0.41–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Larkin – Smith – Zadina7:49
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:26
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Ryan – Mantha – Fabbri7:49
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDjoos – Hronek14:09
xG 0.84–0.59 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Staal – Stecher9:54
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Merrill – Stecher2:44
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Gourde11:55
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli11:28
xG 0.11–0.48 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point13:07
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote7:10
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Schenn – Sergachev5:34
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:58
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).