Wed, Feb 10, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 16 | 312 | 424 |
| MTL | 19 | 013 | 113 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 15:18TORTravis DermottAssists: Jake Muzzin, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:50TORJustin HollAssists: John Tavares, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:32TORIlya MikheyevGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 16:40MTLTomas TatarAssists: Ben Chiarot, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 18:56TORZach HymanENAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:37TORPierre Engvall: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:08MTLShea Weber: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:38MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:02TORZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 13:47TORJustin Holl: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:47MTLJake Evans: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00TORZach Hyman: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:00MTLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Vesey – Kerfoot – Engvall7:41
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Petan7:07
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev8:09
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews11:46
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodie – Rielly15:24
xG 1.00–0.99 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Dermott9:52
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl13:25
xG 0.17–0.98 (15%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault7:35
xG 0.70–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Lehkonen – Evans5:32
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Armia – Kotkaniemi7:36
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki9:27
xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot12:13
xG 1.20–0.19 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Edmundson14:11
xG 0.54–0.50 (51%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Kulak – Romanov13:12
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).