Sat, Feb 13, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 115 | 16 | 430 |
| NSH | 06 | 04 | 213 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59DETRobby FabbriAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 12:24DETAdam ErneAssists: Luke Glendening · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 17:22DETLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, Troy Stecher · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 7:57NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 14:56DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Luke Glendening, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 19:13NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Dante Fabbro, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:57DETPatrik Nemeth: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:23NSHDante Fabbro: Holding2 min
- P2 11:56DETPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:00NSHNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:40NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:03NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kunin won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Gagner – Namestnikov9:27
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Glendening – Mantha – Fabbri2:04
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 2–0
- Ryan – Mantha – Fabbri9:16
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Glendening – Erne8:38
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Hronek15:15
xG 0.93–0.30 (75%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Hronek2:34
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Stecher14:17
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin3:07
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Cousins – Tolvanen8:07
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – Forsberg – Arvidsson5:56
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Grimaldi – Sissons – Trenin5:09
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis15:02
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 23–8goals 0–2
- Tinordi – Fabbro13:55
xG 0.66–0.35 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Benning11:27
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).