Mon, Feb 15, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 19 | 012 | 329 |
| BUF | 012 | 19 | 00 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:37NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:21NYIJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:40BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 9:49NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Oliver Wahlstrom · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:28NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:09BUFBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:24BUFTage Thompson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:08
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Barzal12:55
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Eberle – Nelson – Dal Colle10:33
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:41
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Dobson9:04
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield13:38
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:11
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Fogarty – Thompson7:30
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Eichel11:48
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Rieder7:27
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Hall – Reinhart13:13
xG 0.15–0.55 (22%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Miller – Dahlin18:45
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Davidson – Borgen9:11
xG 0.18–0.22 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Irwin – Jokiharju15:19
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).