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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 15, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:20Shot by Matthews, saved by Hogberg
  3. P1 0:48Shot by Matthews, saved by Hogberg
  4. P1 1:38Shot by Tavares, saved by Hogberg
  5. P1 3:19Shot by Vesey, saved by Hogberg
  6. P1 4:07Shot by Marner, saved by Hogberg
  7. P1 5:36Shot by Anisimov, saved by Andersen
  8. P1 6:32Goal by Matthews (Thornton, Marner)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Bogosian, Dermott, Marner, Matthews · OTT Tierney, Brown, Chabot, Tkachuk, Zub

  9. P1 8:00Shot by Brodie, saved by Hogberg
  10. P1 8:07Shot by Hyman, saved by Hogberg
  11. P1 9:55Shot by Zub, saved by Andersen
  12. P1 10:20Shot by Chabot, saved by Andersen
  13. P1 10:29Goal by Boyd (Spezza)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Boyd, Rielly, Vesey, Marner · OTT Anisimov, Watson, Tierney, Chabot, Zaitsev

  14. P1 11:26Shot by Nylander, saved by Hogberg
  15. P1 11:27Shot by Nylander, saved by Hogberg
  16. P1 12:40Goal by Batherson (Stützle)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bogosian, Kerfoot, Engvall, Dermott, Mikheyev · OTT Stepan, Reilly, Batherson, Stützle, Zub

  17. P1 15:13Shot by Holl, saved by Hogberg
  18. P1 19:10Shot by Engvall, saved by Hogberg
  19. P1 0:00Period end
  20. P2 0:00Period start
  21. P2 1:15Shot by Zub, saved by Andersen
  22. P2 1:27Shot by Hyman, saved by Hogberg
  23. P2 1:36Shot by Dadonov, saved by Andersen
  24. P2 1:49Goal by Engvall (Kerfoot, Brodie)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bogosian, Brodie, Kerfoot, Engvall, Mikheyev · OTT Stepan, Gudbranson, Wolanin, Batherson, Stützle

  25. P2 2:26Shot by Anisimov, saved by Andersen
  26. P2 2:48Shot by Anisimov, saved by Andersen
  27. P2 3:58Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  28. P2 4:26Shot by Wolanin, saved by Andersen
  29. P2 4:39Shot by Gudbranson, saved by Andersen
  30. P2 4:56Shot by Tavares, saved by Hogberg
  31. P2 5:01Shot by Boyd, saved by Hogberg
  32. P2 5:25Shot by Holl, saved by Hogberg
  33. P2 6:34Shot by Norris, saved by Andersen
  34. P2 6:49Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  35. P2 6:52Muzzin: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Muzzin, Holl, Marner, Matthews · OTT Brown, Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Tkachuk

  36. P2 6:52Tkachuk: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Muzzin, Holl, Marner, Matthews · OTT Brown, Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Tkachuk

  37. P2 7:13Shot by White, saved by Andersen
  38. P2 7:20Bogosian: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Bogosian, Hyman, Dermott, Marner, Matthews · OTT Stepan, Chabot, Zaitsev, Batherson, Stützle

  39. P2 8:19Shot by Hyman, saved by Hogberg4v5
  40. P2 9:36Shot by Tierney, saved by Andersen
  41. P2 9:51Goal by Thornton (Matthews)+7 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Brodie, Rielly, Marner, Matthews · OTT Watson, Reilly, Tierney, Brown, Zaitsev

  42. P2 10:43Shot by Dermott, saved by Hogberg
  43. P2 12:14Shot by Brown, saved by Andersen
  44. P2 14:10Shot by Stützle, saved by Andersen
  45. P2 15:52Shot by Spezza, saved by Hogberg
  46. P2 17:24Brown: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Spezza, Muzzin, Holl, Marner, Matthews · OTT Dadonov, Gudbranson, Paul, White, Wolanin

  47. P2 17:39Shot by Marner, saved by Hogberg5v4
  48. P2 18:34Zub: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · OTT Watson, Gudbranson, Tierney, Zub

  49. P2 19:01Goal by Matthews (Rielly, Tavares)5v3+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · OTT Stepan, Reilly, Zaitsev

  50. P2 19:50Shot by Watson, saved by Andersen5v4
  51. P2 19:51Goal by Paul (Watson)5v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Spezza, Brodie, Tavares, Boyd, Nylander · OTT Watson, Paul, Chabot, Zaitsev

  52. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  53. P3 0:00Period start
  54. P3 0:23Shot by Boyd, saved by Hogberg5v4
  55. P3 0:41Goal by Zub (Tierney, Brown)+5 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Boyd, Rielly, Marner, Matthews · OTT Gudbranson, Tierney, Brown, Zaitsev, Zub

  56. P3 1:22Shot by Paul, saved by Andersen
  57. P3 1:29Shot by Gudbranson, saved by Andersen
  58. P3 1:49Hyman: High sticking double minor (4 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Bogosian, Kerfoot, Engvall, Dermott, Mikheyev · OTT Brown, Wolanin, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle

  59. P3 3:44Shot by Spezza, saved by Hogberg4v5
  60. P3 4:34Shot by Norris, saved by Andersen4v5
  61. P3 4:55Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Hogberg4v5
  62. P3 5:52Goal by Brown (White, Chabot)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bogosian, Brodie, Hyman, Vesey, Engvall · OTT Tierney, Brown, White, Chabot, Zaitsev

  63. P3 7:15Shot by Stützle, saved by Andersen
  64. P3 7:37Shot by Matthews, saved by Hogberg
  65. P3 8:16Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  66. P3 8:52Shot by Muzzin, saved by Hogberg
  67. P3 9:30Shot by Marner, saved by Hogberg
  68. P3 10:08Shot by Brodie, saved by Hogberg
  69. P3 11:08Shot by Dermott, saved by Hogberg
  70. P3 11:51Shot by Muzzin, saved by Hogberg
  71. P3 13:23Shot by Hyman, saved by Hogberg
  72. P3 17:59Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen5v6
  73. P3 17:59Goal by Dadonov (Tkachuk, Norris)5v6+39 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Holl, Vesey, Kerfoot, Mikheyev · OTT Dadonov, Stepan, Chabot, Norris, Tkachuk, Stützle

  74. P3 18:14Shot by Tierney, saved by Andersen
  75. P3 18:56Shot by Nylander, saved by Hogberg
  76. P3 19:47Shot by Hyman, saved by Hogberg
  77. P3 0:00Period end
  78. OT 0:00Period start
  79. OT 0:30Shot by Stützle, saved by Andersen3v3
  80. OT 0:57Shot by Marner, saved by Hogberg3v3
  81. OT 1:53Shot by Tavares, saved by Hogberg3v3
  82. OT 2:19Goal by Dadonov (Chabot, Paul)3v3+47 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Marner, Matthews · OTT Dadonov, Paul, Chabot

  83. OT 2:19Period end4v4
  84. OT 2:19Final