Tue, Mar 16, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 119 | 17 | 17 | 03 | 2 | 436 |
| DAL | 06 | 110 | 29 | 02 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 9:05DALMiro HeiskanenPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 14:20TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ross Colton · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 11:49TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 17:54DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 18:35DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 2. TBL Ross Colton scored
- 3. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 5. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:57TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P2 3:55DALNick Caamano: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 8:41TBLCal Foote: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:14TBLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:17DALJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Joseph – Colton8:34
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow9:23
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli15:10
xG 0.50–0.42 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Gourde12:34
xG 0.16–0.48 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote8:38
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Rutta2:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev6:23
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Dickinson – Robertson5:27
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Gurianov – Robertson2:47
xG 0.15–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Kiviranta2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Gurianov5:30
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell17:27
xG 0.84–0.56 (60%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Hanley2:22
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).