Sat, Feb 20, 2021·Edgewood Tahoe Resort, StatelineOutdoor game
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 18 | 113 | 229 |
| COL | 117 | 113 | 19 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58COLSamuel GirardAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:37VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 11:18COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:11COLDevon ToewsGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 14:25VGKAlex TuchAssists: Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:03VGKMark Stone: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:40VGKKeegan Kolesar: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:18VGKWilliam Carrier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:44VGKChandler Stephenson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:44COLTyson Jost: Interference2 min
- P2 16:15COLJoonas Donskoi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:44VGKAlex Tuch: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:09COLAndre Burakovsky: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:59COLNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:37COLCale Makar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:53
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Tuch – Kolesar – Glass7:49
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:58
xG 0.51–0.78 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy6:50
xG 0.03–0.56 (6%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore5:40
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Martinez – Hague2:39
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Holden – Theodore10:01
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare8:22
xG 1.21–0.09 (93%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:12
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Saad9:36
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Landeskog – Compher – Jost6:52
xG 0.02–0.19 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram4:17
xG 0.72–0.07 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Graves – Girard9:57
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Graves – Timmins3:24
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).