Sun, Feb 21, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 014 | 19 | 00 | 232 |
| OTT | 112 | 08 | 113 | 16 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 9:47OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 3:33OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Brady Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 14:35MTLCorey PerryAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 3:30OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.35 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:37MTLPaul Byron: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:40OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:36MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:06MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22MTLBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:04OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:50MTLJeff Petry: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:50OTTDerek Stepan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:16OTTMike Reilly: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Perry – Byron – Evans3:42
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Armia – Kotkaniemi5:44
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Gallagher – Danault12:07
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Byron – Anderson – Suzuki4:07
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Edmundson13:47
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot15:27
xG 0.24–0.32 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Mete – Romanov7:17
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Batherson – Stützle7:30
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk7:40
xG 0.28–0.20 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Haley – Watson – Tierney2:27
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Paul – White10:08
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Zaitsev12:56
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Reilly – Zub12:09
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Reilly3:37
xG 0.01–0.07 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).