Wed, Feb 24, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 011 | 13 | 01 | 122 |
| TOR | 011 | 015 | 112 | 11 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 16:33CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 18:32TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Zach Hyman, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
- OT 1:06TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:51TORJimmy Vesey: Interference2 min
- P1 8:19CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:46CGYJosh Leivo: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:12CGYNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:55TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:47TORAuston Matthews: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:47CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Leivo – Gawdin2:07
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett12:34
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk10:46
xG 0.42–0.84 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Dube9:15
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin12:21
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Tanev – Välimäki3:03
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Andersson – Välimäki4:28
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Boyd – Barabanov5:02
xG 0.50–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander4:53
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vesey – Engvall – Mikheyev3:41
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews9:52
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Dermott2:13
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott15:15
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Lehtonen5:18
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).