Thu, Feb 25, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 013 | 114 | 239 |
| DET | 111 | 110 | 311 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Filip Zadina, Darren Helm · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:15NSHMikael GranlundPPAssists: Roman Josi, Eeli Tolvanen · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 8:38DETSam GagnerAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 2:55NSHErik HaulaAssists: Ryan Ellis, Luke Kunin · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 9:58DETSam GagnerGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 16:22DETAdam ErneAssists: Darren Helm, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–4
- P3 16:56DETSam GagnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:47NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:29DETJon Merrill: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:43DETMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:23NSHMikael Granlund: Interference2 min
- P2 8:46DETLuke Glendening: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:11NSHBen Harpur: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:36DETVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:36NSHMikael Granlund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Haula – Sissons – Kunin9:34
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Johansen – Cousins – Tolvanen9:00
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi9:41
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Granlund – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:52
xG 0.68–0.98 (41%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Fabbro12:32
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis17:37
xG 1.25–1.15 (52%)attempts 22–18goals 1–2
- Borowiecki – Benning11:11
xG 0.32–0.98 (25%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Namestnikov – Zadina8:58
xG 0.51–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:06
xG 0.69–0.45 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri9:09
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Filppula – Gagner – Brome6:04
xG 0.08–0.34 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek11:31
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Djoos8:55
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek3:21
xG 0.55–0.52 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).