Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 08 | 06 | 020 |
| TBL | 15 | 310 | 16 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18TBLOndrej PalatPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 4:06TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jan Rutta · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 8:17TBLBrayden PointAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 15:12TBLPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–4
- P3 1:07TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.05 xG0–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:51TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:51DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:51TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:15DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:34TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:52TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 2:40TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:56DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:34TBLAlexander Volkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:11TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:37DALJason Dickinson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:37TBLBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa5:07
xG 0.50–0.06 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Dowling – Caamano – Robertson2:04
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson2:23
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Hintz6:16
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Klingberg2:00
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell9:27
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sekera – Pysyk8:48
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Point5:48
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde8:21
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Coleman – Point2:09
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov10:08
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote10:20
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta12:04
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).