Sat, Feb 27, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 6, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 120 | 414 | 641 |
| ARI | 09 | 16 | 110 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 14:13ARIClayton KellerAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 17:15COLJacob MacDonaldAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Andre Burakovsky · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:58COLGabriel LandeskogPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 12:00COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 13:57COLTyson JostAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 16:32ARIJohan LarssonAssists: Lawson Crouse, Jordan Oesterle · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 18:09COLPierre-Edouard BellemareENAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.52 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:43ARIDryden Hunt: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:00COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:29COLBrandon Saad: Holding2 min
- P2 10:50ARIPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:52ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:20
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Jost – O'Connor9:37
xG 0.59–0.16 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Nichushkin6:22
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Saad – Burakovsky – MacKinnon4:46
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – MacDonald4:09
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Byram10:57
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Graves – Toews2:58
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Chaput – Fischer7:56
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Pitlick – Hunt9:13
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Crouse – Keller11:59
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Caggiula10:07
xG 0.14–0.82 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Oesterle12:32
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 1–2
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin11:12
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson2:02
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).