Tue, Mar 2, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 110 | 05 | 224 |
| NYR | 211 | 15 | 03 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 0:55BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 2:36NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 9:32NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 16:21BUFTobias RiederAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:04BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:16NYRKevin Rooney: Interference2 min
- P2 4:27BUFBrandon Montour: Holding2 min
- P3 7:11NYRRyan Lindgren: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:11BUFDylan Cozens: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Skinner – Lazar10:43
xG 0.67–0.02 (97%)attempts 20–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:47
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Eakin – Rieder – Cozens8:02
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Okposo – Hall9:59
xG 0.57–0.83 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Jokiharju13:52
xG 0.35–0.05 (86%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Montour – Bryson15:33
xG 1.01–0.72 (58%)attempts 23–13goals 1–2
- Ristolainen – Dahlin18:28
xG 0.44–0.79 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière11:18
xG 0.81–0.81 (50%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
- Kreider – Blackwell – Strome11:24
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Rooney – Gauthier – Chytil10:12
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Lemieux – Howden7:55
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:10
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Smith – Hajek2:20
xG 0.01–0.01 (54%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Miller2:47
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).