Thu, Mar 4, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 113 | 211 | 435 |
| PIT | 311 | 010 | 08 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46PITKris LetangUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 3:20PITMark FriedmanAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 3:57PITJared McCannAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 11:32PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 6:49PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 13:37PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:52PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Oskar Lindblom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:50PHINolan Patrick: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:25PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:51PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:47PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Aube-Kubel – Lindblom9:23
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny12:09
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Raffl – Bunnaman – Patrick6:10
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Couturier14:04
xG 0.70–1.29 (35%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov13:36
xG 0.86–0.57 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov4:22
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel14:25
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – McCann11:42
xG 0.95–0.61 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Jankowski – Lafferty – Angello4:45
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:53
xG 0.03–0.23 (13%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ceci5:38
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson9:47
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Letang – Marino3:35
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).