Fri, Mar 5, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 011 | 115 | 05 | 0 | 342 |
| CHI | 110 | 15 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 10:27TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 12:57CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:18CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:20TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 6:00CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Duncan Keith, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CHI Alex DeBrincat stopped
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 5. CHI Philipp Kurashev scored
- 6. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:06CHIIan Mitchell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03TBLBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:28TBLLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P2 5:02CHINikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 8:47CHICarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P2 17:29TBLMikhail Sergachev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:01TBLBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:54CHIDominik Kubalik: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P3 14:14CHIDominik Kubalik: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:04CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli10:36
xG 1.35–0.20 (87%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow9:18
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov6:43
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Gourde9:44
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Foote7:07
xG 1.11–0.03 (98%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:38
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Schenn – Sergachev6:44
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Soderberg – Janmark – Suter2:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Hagel – Kampf6:33
xG 0.25–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Janmark – Kurashev4:26
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Wallmark – Highmore4:18
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Boqvist3:11
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Mitchell2:31
xG 0.02–0.02 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Murphy – Zadorov12:42
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).