Sat, Mar 6, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 214 | 07 | 013 | 234 |
| ARI | 07 | 211 | 313 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:20MINMathew DumbaAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 15:12MINJordan GreenwayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 1:25ARILawson CrouseAssists: Conor Garland, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 13:32ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Johan Larsson, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 3:57ARIConor GarlandPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 6:15ARITyler PitlickAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 19:13ARITyler PitlickENAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:10MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:39ARIJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:39MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:34ARIJordan Oesterle: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:02MINMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:00ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:37MINIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:06MINBrad Hunt: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Bjugstad – Fiala5:55
xG 1.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Bjugstad – Kaprizov3:10
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rau – Sturm5:53
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Fiala – Eriksson Ek3:44
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba18:32
xG 1.72–0.74 (70%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:14
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Cole – Hunt8:20
xG 0.25–0.77 (25%)attempts 4–12goals 0–3
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Dvorak – Keller8:23
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Larsson11:11
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Hayden – Gauthier – Fischer3:31
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Garland11:56
xG 0.64–1.78 (26%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle13:02
xG 0.76–0.73 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:32
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:33
xG 0.32–1.68 (16%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).