Tue, Mar 9, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 213 | 06 | 19 | 11 | 429 |
| DET | 16 | 212 | 04 | 01 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04DETAdam ErnePPAssists: Filip Zadina, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:29TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 13:04TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Blake Coleman, Erik Cernak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 6:58DETPatrik NemethAssists: Sam Gagner, Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 9:04DETDylan LarkinAssists: Robby Fabbri, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 9:40TBLErik CernakAssists: Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 2:17TBLBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:15TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 6:32DETChristian Djoos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:21DETMarc Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:42DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:31TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:31DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Gourde11:59
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow10:48
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Barré-Boulet8:51
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli13:00
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:54
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Hedman – Sergachev3:26
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev2:23
xG 0.00–0.01 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Namestnikov – Zadina3:18
xG 0.29–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne8:35
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Rasmussen – Brome5:35
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri10:08
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek17:21
xG 0.42–0.37 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
- Nemeth – Djoos13:02
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Merrill15:01
xG 0.21–0.58 (27%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).