Fri, Mar 12, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Arizona Coyotes 0, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 07 | 09 | 025 |
| MIN | 08 | 014 | 410 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:47MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 8:10MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 19:01MINJonas BrodinENAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.51 xG0–3
- P3 19:11MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:45MINCarson Soucy: Holding2 min
- P1 16:32MINKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:04ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:32ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:21ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:24ARIDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:02MINCarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:40MINKirill Kaprizov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Crouse – Garland7:20
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Chaput – Hayden5:07
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Fischer6:30
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Keller7:23
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson9:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle9:28
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Oesterle – Chychrun2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Hartman – Fiala7:18
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Greenway – Eriksson Ek2:32
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek3:36
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Bjugstad – Sturm6:03
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba12:23
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:32
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Cole – Soucy12:28
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).