Mon, Mar 22, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 18 | 26 | 319 |
| NYR | 010 | 317 | 213 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:52BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Riley Sheahan, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:13NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 10:39NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 18:18NYRAdam FoxAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 1:09BUFDylan CozensAssists: Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 4:22BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 5:47NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.50 xG3–4
- P3 19:02NYRKaapo KakkoENAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:26NYRJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:42BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42NYRBrendan Lemieux: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:42BUFTage Thompson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:23BUFJacob Bryson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:07NYRPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57BUFCasey Mittelstadt: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Olofsson – Thompson7:56
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Lazar – Mittelstadt10:29
xG 0.56–0.93 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Hall – Reinhart – Cozens15:36
xG 0.16–0.57 (23%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
- Eakin – Sheahan – Asplund6:25
xG 0.01–0.64 (2%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Jokiharju16:32
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Miller – Dahlin12:19
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Montour – Dahlin2:27
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Panarin – Kakko7:30
xG 0.89–0.05 (95%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich13:13
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Chytil – Lafrenière3:46
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin6:04
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:58
xG 1.24–0.26 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller17:31
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Lindgren – Miller2:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).